Who is Winning??

As we examine the latest status report, we can see...

• Ren appears to have a majority of the elite teams in the field with 6 of the 8 teams that comprise the top 2 seeds.  Due to the early debacle of drafting UNC over Kentucky, Stimpy could be gritting his teeth full of kitty litter if form holds on Final Four weekend.  Kentucky, Syracuse, Nova, Purdue, and Michigan St are all capable of winning it all with Kansas St not far behind. 
• Should any of those teams falter, the next tier of contenders are dominated by Stimpy schools.  6 of the next 8 are Stimpy's which would even the score at 8 teams apiece for the first 4 protected seeds.  These teams that range from #9 Georgetown to #16 Gonzaga (on the spreadsheet not the polls) have all shown an ability to compete with anyone whether on the road or at home. 
• The middle portion of the bracket (seeds 5-8) are nearly all Stimpy's teams w/ a current distribution of 14 for Stimpy and just 2 for Ren.  The sudden emergence of Richmond and Illinois who have played their way into the tournament have contributed greatly to the lopsided advantage. 
• Currently, there are 26 teams that at this time are worthy of bubble status.  We'll get more in depth on the pecking order of the bubble as we get closer to Championship Week.  A few teams have played themselves right out of contention and are no longer worthy of consideration.  Notable teams that fit this category include: UNC, Miami FL, Minnesota, Northwestern, Tulsa, U Conn, and VCU.
• Despite the apparent advantage in teams, Stimpy's teams have taken a beating in the head to head matchups.  Ren currently has a $13 advantage mostly from a 23-15 record in midmajor showdowns.  
• While anything can and will happen in the one and done conference tournaments, we'll briefly take a look at the midmajor conferences that will only be receiving one bid to the NCAA tournament. 



• American East - Vermont and Stonybrook have been 1 or 2 most of the year and appear to be headed for a collision course in the conf championship game. 
• Atlantic Sun - Campbell and Belmont are running 1-2 for now w/ Ren's other contender E Tenn St just a game behind.  This conference race though is extremely tight with 5 teams separated by a single game. 
• Big Sky - The top 2 teams are Weber State and N Colorado (the very last pick of the draft at #131 btw) while Montana sits in 3rd. 
• Big South - Advantage Ren as Coastal Carolina has been the class of the league at 12-3.  Stimpy's horse in the race is the defending champs Radford who at 10-5 are just 2 games back.  The two teams split the season series w/ the Chanticleers winning by 1 point on the road vs Radford on Saturday.
• Big West - EPIC Failure by Ren who invested 3 schools, none of which are the favorite.  While While Pacific is a strong contender in 2nd, UCI and UCR are the 2 worst teams in the conference.  Stimpy's pick LB St had won 4 of the last 5 before losing to league leader UCSB by 2 on the road Saturday. 
• Horizon - Butler is 16-0 in league play enough said.  
• Ivy - It's Cornell's title to lose after surviving a scare against Princeton Saturday 48-45 to takeover first place.  Harvard will look for payback Friday night when they host Cornell.  If the Crimson can pull the upset, they'll be tied for first with 5 games remaining. 
• MAAC - Siena holds a 4 gain lead over Fairfield (both Stimpy picks).  Ren has Rider who are currently 8-8 in conference and tied for 5th.
• MAC - Akron and Kent State are 1-2 in the standings with Buffalo 2 games back after beating the Golden Flashes on Saturday.  
• MEAC - Ren's got this one with Morgan St at 10-1 leading the race by 2 full games.
• MVC - N Iowa a top 25 fixture all year has Stimpy in a good position here.  Ren can't be happy with Wichita St's loss to Evansville which all but eliminated the Shockers from at-large consideration.  3rd place Illinois St is capable of making a run in the conference tourney, having reached the final last season. 
• NEC - Ren/Stimpy title game looks like a real possiblility with Robert Morris and Quinnipiac dominating the league.  Ren wastes another pick with Sacred Heart tied for 9th in the conference. 
• Patriot- Ren must have summoned John Feinstein to have the prescience to select the top dawgs Lehigh.  Stimpy's pick is just embarrassing as Army is dead f-ing last.  
• OVC- Stimpy's Murray State Racers are undefeated at 15-0.  Ren has E Kentucky, 5 games back in 3rd place.
• SoCon - Charleston is one of the prime contenders leading the Southern Division.  Davidson sits in 3rd for Ren but has been playing well of late winning 5 of their last 6.  After a strong start, W Carolina has lost 3 of the last 4 in conference.   
• Southland - Both combatants have strong contenders with Stephen F Austin leading the East Division and Texas A & M Corpus Christi a game behind Western Division leader Sam Houston St.  Only the Bearkats can boast an undefeated 10-0 record though. 
• SWAC - Epic fail #2 for Ren?  His 2 teams Prairie View and Texas Southern are tied for 3rd as Jackson St at 12-1 is the class of the league at this point.  
• Summit - Ren is sitting pretty with the top 3 teams on his side: Oakland, IUPUI, and Oral Roberts.
• Sun Belt - What a mess - 4 teams selected by the two and only N Texas is even in 2nd place.  The Hilltoppers magical run appears to be over as well.  S Alabama and Denver are in the middle and don't appear to be contenders at all.  
• WCC - It's all Gonzaga and St. Mary's with Stimpy's Portland Pilots a distant 3rd.  
• WAC - Utah St leads the conference and has won 10 straight.  2nd place Louisiana Tech was the least team to beat the Aggies but did so handily 82-60.  The two teams will face off on Wednesday in Logan, Utah  for league supremacy. 

Scorecard: 
1-2 seeds :  Ren 6 Stimpy 2
1-4 seeds: Ren 8 Stimpy 8
1-8 seeds: Ren 10 Stimpy 22
Bubble Teams: Ren 13 Stimpy 13
Favorites for the Conf Title: Ren 14 Stimpy 11
Longshots aka wasted picks: Ren 29 Stimpy 19
Regular Season head to head matchups BCS conferences: Stimpy 33-30 = $3.00 to Stimpy
Regular Season head to head matchups Midmajors: Ren 23-15 = $16.00 to Ren
Regular Season head to head matchups overall: Ren +$13.00 to Ren
Worst record candidates ($5 penalty) 

Penn St 8-16

UC Riverside 9-15

UC Irvine 11-15

UCLA 11-13
Long Beach St 12-13

Boston College 12-13

So who the heck is winning?? 

Ren's draft strategy was based on dominating the one bid midmajors and gaining a decided advantage in the head to head matchups with superior teams in those conferences.  The plan is working so far with Ren out to a $13 advantage.  But will his teams reach the tournament?  There appear to be several dead even tossups that will determine Ren's fate: Vermont/Stonybrook, R Morris/Quinnipiac, Campbell/Belmont, and Akron/Kent St are all too close to call.  And of course, in a one and done scenario, one bad game could derail an entire season. 

Stimpy is probably looking at a 6-8 team advantage for at-large bids if the bracket were released today and if ESPN's bracketologist is on point with his predictions.  The number of bubble teams fighting it out for those final at-large bids is predominantly clad in Stimpy green as well.  Still as we've witnessed with Richmond, Illinois, U Conn, and Wichita St a team's prospects can change instantly when that team posts a marquee win or suffers a bad loss.  Bottom line, there's a lot of games left to be played so the lead is anything but secure for now.  

So at this juncture, Stimpy is winning in terms of the number of teams in the tournament but Ren has 3 of the 4 #1 seeds and 6 of the 8 powerhouses who could win it all.