A Big Week

The Sweet 16

After a brief hiatus, here are 16 developments over the past week impacting Ren/Stimpy's teams as we are less than 3 weeks away from Selection Sunday... (in no particular order) 

1. N Iowa loses to Evansville - The Purple Aces have just 2 wins in their 17 games against the Missouri Valley Conference.  Those 2 wins however are doozies.  The first one over Wichita State all but knocked the Shockers out of the tournament.  On Tuesday, they did the unthinkable beating #25 N Iowa.  Just a stunning development and the Panthers better get it turned around soon to feel safe on Selection Sunday again.  
2. U Conn 73 W Virginia 62- Jim Calhoun has his Huskies playing inspired ball lately after two monster upsets of Villanova and W Virginia.  It sets the stage for a huge matchup vs Louisville on Saturday.
3. Duquesne 73 Dayton 71 - The Flyers are stumbling badly lately with losses to Duquesne, St. Louis and Temple.  They may be playing their way out of the tournament and next week's battle at Richmond will be their last chance before the Atlantic 10 tournament begins
4. Florida 75 Tennessee 62 - The Gators first win over Tennessee in three years has them a step closer to getting back to the tournament for the first time since their back to back national championships in 2006/2007.  
5. Hofstra 73 Northeastern 62 - A bad loss that dropped the Huskies from first place in the Colonial Athletic.  Add in their failure to capitalize on bracketbusters vs Louisiana Tech Saturday and it means they'll need to win the conference tournament with no at large bid available to them.  
6. Texas Tech blasted by Texas and Kansas St = NIT
7. Boston College blows out Virginia Tech at home 80-60. A terrible loss to BC for the Hokies a team that has few impressive wins on its resume.  15 of their 21 total wins came against teams outside of the RPI 100.  If they don't beat Maryland and/or Ga. Tech down the stretch and make some noise in the ACC tourney, the Hokies will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.  We just might see the annual tradition of Seth Greenberg whining about the selection process yet again as the Hokies resume is barren.
8. Wichita State loses to Bradley - The Shockers were on life support as it is but Bradley just pulled the plug.  
9. Houston 92 Memphis 75 - Memphis is headed to the NIT unless they win the conference title.
10. Purdue loses Robbie Hummel to a torn ACL for the season.  A devastating loss to one of the hottest teams in the country.  The loss of Hummel puts a serious damper on the Boilers hopes for a deep run.  Perhaps nobody in the country was playing as cohesively as Purdue who were making a serious run for a #1 seed.
11. Notre Dame blows out Pittsburgh at home 68-53.  Without Harangody, the Domers shot the lights out hitting 10 three pointers en route to a surprisingly easy win.  Pittsburgh was coming off a brutal 3 game stretch including the 3OT classic against W Virginia so a letdown was not surprising.  It demonstrates how the Big East is the toughest conference in America.
12. Marquette survives 63-61 OT over St. John's on the road to keep their bubble hopes alive.  The Golden Eagles will play fellow bubbe-ites Seton Hall on Sunday and Louisville 2 days later.  
13. Towson 83 William and Mary 77 - Off the bubble for good this time, the Tribe will need to win the CAA to get in the dance. 
14. Duke pounds Tulsa 70-52.  The Golden Hurricanes last chance to get a nonconference win was looking promising for a while.  Eventually, Duke's depth and big 3 of Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singler was too much for Tulsa.  
15. Texas bounces back strong despite loss of point guard Dogus Balbay for the season.  With wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma St, the Longhorns gained some momentum and have stopped the bleeding for now.  
16. Morehead St 70 Murray St 65- While Murray State has zero chance at an at-large berth, they were cruising along in the Ohio Valley with an unblemished 16-0 record.  The loss to incumbent Morehead State, who won the OVC last season, has these 2 teams on a collision course for a rematch in the OVC title game.

Bracketbusters Weekend

With Bracketbusters beginning tonight, many teams have a lot on the line this weekend...

• Old Dominion at N Iowa - Old Dominion is tied for first place in the Colonial Athletic and do have a win over Georgetown in their pocket that looks better everyday.  Still, the Monarchs RPI of #41 would get a nice boost if they can upset N Iowa tonight.  The Panthers will be without 7 foot center Jordan Eglseder who was suspended for a DUI arrest and will be at a size disadvantage.  The teams are mirror images of each other in that they play great defense and rebound well.  N Iowa is 2nd in the nation in scoring defense allowing only 55.1 points per game and the Monarchs are right there at 55.8.  Stimpy will be rooting for the Monarchs to pickup the tough road win to impress the committee. 
• William and Mary at Iona - William and Mary was struggling and therefore did not merit consideration for a matchup with one of the marquee bracketbuster teams like a Butler, Siena or N Iowa..  They'll face Iona who are 2nd in the MAAC and 10-3 at home.  The Tribe have stayed relevant by outlasting league leader Northeastern and then winning a tight one on the road against George Mason.  A win keeps their slim hopes alive.
• Cornell at Harvard - Not a Bracketbuster game, but in the Ivy League it's much more significant.  Big Red put a big whupping on Harvard at home.  Harvard has a chance at redemption tonight and will need to play much better than they have been.  The Crimson barely escaped in overtime vs Yale getting outrebounded 38-27 in that game. 
• Siena at Butler - Siena who missed out on a signature win prior to league play despite aggressive scheduling, will get a huge opportunity against Butler Saturday morning.  The Saints are the class of the MAAC but after suffering their first defeat to Niagara, have little margin for error.  Many pundits think that Siena will miss the tournament entirely if they lose Saturday and fail to win the MAAC tournament.  The Saints senior trio of Edwin Ubiles, Ronald Moore, and Alex Franklin along with junior Ryan Rossiter know how to handle big games. Together they have reached the 2nd round in the NCAAs the past 2 years.  If Siena can limit Butler from 3 point range and keep them off the free throw line which has been one of their strengths all year, they can pull the upset.  
• Louisiana Tech at Northeastern - Utah State's big win Wednesday over La Tech did some serious damage to the Bulldogs at-large hopes which are slim at best anyway.  A win over CAA co-leader Northeastern is essential if they want to continue to be in the conversation.
• Wichita St at Utah St - These two teams are going in the opposite direction with Utah State having won 11 straight and Wichita State having to go overtime to beat Evansville at home.  The Shockers desperately need this road win as this will be their last chance to improve their sketchy resume to the committee.  The Aggies have done some damage in the WAC but lack big wins outside of the one vs BYU.  Stew Morrill has his team playing efficient offensive basketball behind the all around play of Jared Quayle. 

While the little guy is on display this weekend, the big boys aren't lacking in critical games either...

• Florida at Ole Miss - Both are bubble teams with Ole Miss fading quickly having lost 4 of their last 5 games.   
• Baylor at Oklahoma St - The Bears are in but Oklahoma State is far from safe and need to continue to win at home where they are 12-1.  Baylor will be attempting to sweep the season series for the first time.  The Cowboys are begging a murderous stretch of games that includes Texas, Kansas, and Texas A and M.
• Ohio St at Michigan St - The Big 10s elite will clash with first place on the line. 
• Villanova at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh who survived the 3OT ordeal against W Virginia will get an even bigger test against #3 Villanova at home. 
  
• Marquette at Cincinnati - Bubble vs bubble.  The Bearcats are running out of time after losing to S Florida on Tuesday
• Virginia Tech at Duke - The Hokies are one of the hottest teams in the ACC after beating Wake Forest Tuesday night, they've won 5 straight. 

Who is Winning??

As we examine the latest status report, we can see...

• Ren appears to have a majority of the elite teams in the field with 6 of the 8 teams that comprise the top 2 seeds.  Due to the early debacle of drafting UNC over Kentucky, Stimpy could be gritting his teeth full of kitty litter if form holds on Final Four weekend.  Kentucky, Syracuse, Nova, Purdue, and Michigan St are all capable of winning it all with Kansas St not far behind. 
• Should any of those teams falter, the next tier of contenders are dominated by Stimpy schools.  6 of the next 8 are Stimpy's which would even the score at 8 teams apiece for the first 4 protected seeds.  These teams that range from #9 Georgetown to #16 Gonzaga (on the spreadsheet not the polls) have all shown an ability to compete with anyone whether on the road or at home. 
• The middle portion of the bracket (seeds 5-8) are nearly all Stimpy's teams w/ a current distribution of 14 for Stimpy and just 2 for Ren.  The sudden emergence of Richmond and Illinois who have played their way into the tournament have contributed greatly to the lopsided advantage. 
• Currently, there are 26 teams that at this time are worthy of bubble status.  We'll get more in depth on the pecking order of the bubble as we get closer to Championship Week.  A few teams have played themselves right out of contention and are no longer worthy of consideration.  Notable teams that fit this category include: UNC, Miami FL, Minnesota, Northwestern, Tulsa, U Conn, and VCU.
• Despite the apparent advantage in teams, Stimpy's teams have taken a beating in the head to head matchups.  Ren currently has a $13 advantage mostly from a 23-15 record in midmajor showdowns.  
• While anything can and will happen in the one and done conference tournaments, we'll briefly take a look at the midmajor conferences that will only be receiving one bid to the NCAA tournament. 



• American East - Vermont and Stonybrook have been 1 or 2 most of the year and appear to be headed for a collision course in the conf championship game. 
• Atlantic Sun - Campbell and Belmont are running 1-2 for now w/ Ren's other contender E Tenn St just a game behind.  This conference race though is extremely tight with 5 teams separated by a single game. 
• Big Sky - The top 2 teams are Weber State and N Colorado (the very last pick of the draft at #131 btw) while Montana sits in 3rd. 
• Big South - Advantage Ren as Coastal Carolina has been the class of the league at 12-3.  Stimpy's horse in the race is the defending champs Radford who at 10-5 are just 2 games back.  The two teams split the season series w/ the Chanticleers winning by 1 point on the road vs Radford on Saturday.
• Big West - EPIC Failure by Ren who invested 3 schools, none of which are the favorite.  While While Pacific is a strong contender in 2nd, UCI and UCR are the 2 worst teams in the conference.  Stimpy's pick LB St had won 4 of the last 5 before losing to league leader UCSB by 2 on the road Saturday. 
• Horizon - Butler is 16-0 in league play enough said.  
• Ivy - It's Cornell's title to lose after surviving a scare against Princeton Saturday 48-45 to takeover first place.  Harvard will look for payback Friday night when they host Cornell.  If the Crimson can pull the upset, they'll be tied for first with 5 games remaining. 
• MAAC - Siena holds a 4 gain lead over Fairfield (both Stimpy picks).  Ren has Rider who are currently 8-8 in conference and tied for 5th.
• MAC - Akron and Kent State are 1-2 in the standings with Buffalo 2 games back after beating the Golden Flashes on Saturday.  
• MEAC - Ren's got this one with Morgan St at 10-1 leading the race by 2 full games.
• MVC - N Iowa a top 25 fixture all year has Stimpy in a good position here.  Ren can't be happy with Wichita St's loss to Evansville which all but eliminated the Shockers from at-large consideration.  3rd place Illinois St is capable of making a run in the conference tourney, having reached the final last season. 
• NEC - Ren/Stimpy title game looks like a real possiblility with Robert Morris and Quinnipiac dominating the league.  Ren wastes another pick with Sacred Heart tied for 9th in the conference. 
• Patriot- Ren must have summoned John Feinstein to have the prescience to select the top dawgs Lehigh.  Stimpy's pick is just embarrassing as Army is dead f-ing last.  
• OVC- Stimpy's Murray State Racers are undefeated at 15-0.  Ren has E Kentucky, 5 games back in 3rd place.
• SoCon - Charleston is one of the prime contenders leading the Southern Division.  Davidson sits in 3rd for Ren but has been playing well of late winning 5 of their last 6.  After a strong start, W Carolina has lost 3 of the last 4 in conference.   
• Southland - Both combatants have strong contenders with Stephen F Austin leading the East Division and Texas A & M Corpus Christi a game behind Western Division leader Sam Houston St.  Only the Bearkats can boast an undefeated 10-0 record though. 
• SWAC - Epic fail #2 for Ren?  His 2 teams Prairie View and Texas Southern are tied for 3rd as Jackson St at 12-1 is the class of the league at this point.  
• Summit - Ren is sitting pretty with the top 3 teams on his side: Oakland, IUPUI, and Oral Roberts.
• Sun Belt - What a mess - 4 teams selected by the two and only N Texas is even in 2nd place.  The Hilltoppers magical run appears to be over as well.  S Alabama and Denver are in the middle and don't appear to be contenders at all.  
• WCC - It's all Gonzaga and St. Mary's with Stimpy's Portland Pilots a distant 3rd.  
• WAC - Utah St leads the conference and has won 10 straight.  2nd place Louisiana Tech was the least team to beat the Aggies but did so handily 82-60.  The two teams will face off on Wednesday in Logan, Utah  for league supremacy. 

Scorecard: 
1-2 seeds :  Ren 6 Stimpy 2
1-4 seeds: Ren 8 Stimpy 8
1-8 seeds: Ren 10 Stimpy 22
Bubble Teams: Ren 13 Stimpy 13
Favorites for the Conf Title: Ren 14 Stimpy 11
Longshots aka wasted picks: Ren 29 Stimpy 19
Regular Season head to head matchups BCS conferences: Stimpy 33-30 = $3.00 to Stimpy
Regular Season head to head matchups Midmajors: Ren 23-15 = $16.00 to Ren
Regular Season head to head matchups overall: Ren +$13.00 to Ren
Worst record candidates ($5 penalty) 

Penn St 8-16

UC Riverside 9-15

UC Irvine 11-15

UCLA 11-13
Long Beach St 12-13

Boston College 12-13

So who the heck is winning?? 

Ren's draft strategy was based on dominating the one bid midmajors and gaining a decided advantage in the head to head matchups with superior teams in those conferences.  The plan is working so far with Ren out to a $13 advantage.  But will his teams reach the tournament?  There appear to be several dead even tossups that will determine Ren's fate: Vermont/Stonybrook, R Morris/Quinnipiac, Campbell/Belmont, and Akron/Kent St are all too close to call.  And of course, in a one and done scenario, one bad game could derail an entire season. 

Stimpy is probably looking at a 6-8 team advantage for at-large bids if the bracket were released today and if ESPN's bracketologist is on point with his predictions.  The number of bubble teams fighting it out for those final at-large bids is predominantly clad in Stimpy green as well.  Still as we've witnessed with Richmond, Illinois, U Conn, and Wichita St a team's prospects can change instantly when that team posts a marquee win or suffers a bad loss.  Bottom line, there's a lot of games left to be played so the lead is anything but secure for now.  

So at this juncture, Stimpy is winning in terms of the number of teams in the tournament but Ren has 3 of the 4 #1 seeds and 6 of the 8 powerhouses who could win it all. 

Status Report 2/16/10

Updated report for 2/16/10 w/ new developments noted in the next post...

Cornell caught looking ahead

This guy was happy with Cornell's loss to Penn

Friday night was supposed to be a warm up game for Cornell vs Penn as they prepped for Saturday's showdown with undefeated Princeton for sole possession of first place in the Ivy.  Apparently, nobody informed Penn who stunned Big Red in Philadelphia 79-64.  The Quakers entered Friday night's contest with a ghastly record of 3-15 although they were 2-2 in Ivy league play.  Still, Cornell was the class of the league winning conference games by an average of 25 points.  Penn came out guns blazing to begin the 2nd half with a 15-0 run and handed Cornell its first loss in league play of the season.  Jack Eggleston scored a career high 24 points and the Quakers shot over 56% including 11-21 from beyond the arc.  All of a sudden Cornell who were ranked nationally for the first time in school history are being put to a major test.  They'll need to bounce back quickly against Princeton on Saturday to regain a share of first place.  A second loss to Princeton could be fatal especially since the committee will not look past what happened on Friday night in Philly.

Notable games this weekend

• Cincinnati at U Conn - Both teams desperately need a win and for the loser, it might take a deep run in the Big East tournament to even gain consideration for the Big Dance.  The Bearcats have lost 3 of 4 and look to be headed to the NIT anyway with a brutal stretch of games appraching.  After a trip to Storrs, they'll face S Florida on the road followed by Marquette at home.  U Conn will get a big emotional boost from the return of coach Jim Calhoun to the sidelines.  After nearly upsetting Syracuse on the road, the Huskies will attempt to salvage their season first with Cincinnati and then on Big Monday at Villanova.  
• Oklahoma at Oklahoma St - The annual interstate rivalry game known as "Bedlam" becomes even more important with both teams on the bubble.  The Sooners who pulled off the upset over Texas last week have a lot more work to do and a win over the Pokes would keep that momentum going.  Oklahoma State needs to hold serve and get back on the right track after 3 straight conference losses.
• UNLV at San Diego St - The Rebels entered the AP top 25 for the first time this week.  The Aztecs need a signature win and they'll get that opportunity Saturday night in front of their fans.  San Diego St. sits one game behind UNLV in the MWC standings.  The Rebels rebounding woes contributed greatly to the loss vs New Mexico as they were punished on the glass 45-23 including 17 offensive boards.  The Aztecs will look to avenge an early season loss to UNLV and will have a healthy Billy White this time around.  
• George Mason at Old Dominion - George Mason's thrilling overtime win over VCU on Tuesday helped them keep pace in the CAA race.  Saturday the two teams tied for second place with 11-3 conference records will square off.  The Monarchs are 12-0 at home this season but George Mason won the first game handily 71-55 so it won't be easy.  Old Dominion is second in the nation in scoring defense.  
• Texas A & M at Texas Tech - The Red Raiders who swept the Oklahomas will continue its brutal stretch of games that will determine whether they are NIT or NCAA bound.  First up, the red hot Aggies who have won 5 of their last 6 games including a 15 point win over Tech in the first meeting at College Station.  The Red Raiders are a different team at home with a 13-1 record.  
•  Memphis at Tulsa - 2 bubble teams that share 2nd place in Conference USA clash in a pivotal showdown in Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane are undefeated at home this season at 15-0.  Tulsa will look to take advantage of its size advantage vs Memphis especially with the dismissal of 6'8 300 lb Pierre Henderson-Niles from the team for disciplinary reasons.  
• S Florida at Marquette- 2 Big East teams trying to get on the right side of the bubble...
• Louisville at Syracuse - The Cardinals continue to stumble with their latest loss to St. John's on the road.  While they haven't had the results, Louisville has risen to the occasion several times this season against teams that are far superior on paper.  Can they shock the world and solve that impenetrable Syracuse zone that has baffled everyone? 

Advantage Stimpy

During the draft, Ren who as we've said doesn't actually watch basketball, thought he made a great pick with Wichita State at #76.  Through his misguided attempts at scouting, Ren deduced that the Shockers were easily one of the steals of the draft.  Well the dream all but died for the Shockers on Tuesday night much to Stimpy's delight after a stunning loss to Evansville.  All the Purple Aces had done prior to their upset of Wichita St was lose 14 consecutive times.  Tuesday Evansville recorded its first conference victory and doomed Wichita State's at-large hopes in the process.  Already, quite bleak, the Shockers will now have to win the conference tourney to reach the NCAA tournament.

Other blows to Ren's midsection include:

• Illinois who just a week ago were squarely on the bubble, pulled off 2 major upsets.  First, they handled Michigan State at home as the injury to Kalin Lucas was too much to overcome for Sparty . Then on Tuesday they did the unthinkable: beating Wisconsin on the road.  The Badgers  had an 18 game winning streak in Madison including wins over Duke, Ohio St, and Purdue and held a 51-0 record against unranked Big 10 opponents during the Bo Ryan era.  The Illini find themselves in a tie for first place in the Big 10 and with those 2 signature wins and are sitting pretty in terms of receiving an at-large bid for now.  
• Stimpy's homework is paying off as pick #118, the Richmond Spiders are poised to return to the NCAA tournament.  After blowing out Temple on Saturday, the Spiders edged Rhode Island on the road Wednesday and find themselves tied with Xavier and Charlotte for the conference lead.  The Spiders shot a sizzling 74% from the field in the second half of Wednesday's win over the Rams . There's still much work to be done with a treacherous 3 game stretch at Xavier, vs Dayton, at Charlotte still to come. 
• Northwestern which was attempting to build on a 2 game winning streak, fell flat on its face losing to Iowa Wednesday.  The Wildcats sit at 5-7 in the Big 10 and their chances of reaching the NCAA tournament are all but gone.  To have any chance, they'll need to ruin Valentine's Day for Minnesota and then go into Madison and beat Wisconsin.  

2/09/10 Status Report Notes

Movers

1. Texas A & M -  The Aggies had a very successful week winning on the road against Missouri and holding serve against #20 ranked Baylor.  At this point, they are clearly in the tournament as a #7 seed according to ESPN's Joey Brackets.  
2. Maryland - Testudo is dancing in his shell right now as the Terps find themselves all alone in 2nd place in the ACC.  Maryland edged Florida State on the road and then destroyed the Tar reels at home.  While UNC may not even qualify for the NIT, it's still a landmark win for Maryland to dominate Roy Williams' squad so thoroughly.  Senior Greivis Vasquez is playing some of his best basketball of the season and finished with 26 points and 11 assists in the win over UNC. 
3. Cornell - The Big Red aren't sneaking up on anyone this year and Lunardi already has Cornell slated as an 8th seed.  Their train just keeps rolling with double digit victories over Yale and Brown.  As long as they don't slip up, Cornell is in great shape to return to the Big Dance and make some noise.
4. Memphis - A big win at home over conference leader UAB helps get Memphis on the bubble.  But a close loss to Gonzaga assures that the Tigers will have to sweat it out on Selection Sunday if they lose in the Conference USA tourney.  
5. Belmont and Campbell - We're headed for an Atlantic Sun showdown as these two stand 1/2 in the conference with Ren's E Tenn St a factor as well.

Shakers

1. Clemson - The Tigers have lost 4 of their last 5 games and are squarely on the bubble now after the slide.  While they appear to be safe for now, Clemson needs to right this ship quickly.  A three game homestand beginning with Florida State on Wednesday is critical.  
2. UAB -  Just a slight drop for UAB but the Blazers still have room for error. and appear to be on the right side of the bubble  The loss to a desperate Memphis team on the road is not considered a bad loss.  A rematch at home with Marshall will be a dangerous game but one that UAB should win.  
3. Cal - The weakness of the Pac 10 means that even though the Bears won at Pauley Pavilion on Saturday, Cal is not guaranteed a spot in the tourney yet.  Similar to the teams above, as long as they keep winning, Cal will have nothing to worry about though.  The problem is that any slip up in the Pac 10 will be looked at unfavorably since the Pac 10 is so weak.  
4. Harvard - As mentioned in an earlier post, the Crimson are NIT bound unless they can somehow catch Cornell.  They'll need help for that to happen after losing to Princeton on Friday. 
5. UNC - An irrelevant team that is getting worse by the day.  Even a win over Duke might not resuscitate this corpse.
6. William and Mary, Alabama, Texas Southern - The first two are no longer on the bubble and Texas Southern fell to Prairie View Saturday and is now in 3rd place in the SWAC race.  

Scorecard: 

1-2 Seeds: Ren 5 Stimpy 3

1-4 Seeds: Ren 7 Stimpy 9

1-8 Seeds:  Ren 12 Stimpy 20

Bubble Teams: Ren 14 Stimpy 17

Favorites for the Conf title: Ren 13 Stimpy 12

Longshots aka wasted picks: Ren 26 Stimpy 17

Worst record candidates:

Penn St 8-15

UC Riverside 9-14

UC Irvine 10-14

Hofstra 12-13

Long Beach St 11-12

Michigan 11-12

UCLA 11-12

 

 

Status Report 2/09/10

Updated status report below, notes to follow...

Weekend Watch

the only thing worse than UNC is my artwork

 

In Memoriam

North Carolina - Stick a fork in these guys after their latest loss to the Hokies.  At pick #6, congrats Stimpy you just made the worst pick of all time. 
Harvard - After getting thrashed in last week's not so game of the week vs Cornell, the Crimson were unable to recover, losing to Princeton on Friday.  They will now have to beat Cornell and hope that Big Red slips twice more to have a shot at the NCAAs. 
William and Mary - After getting throttled by Old Dominion on Wednesday, the Tribe are all but done in terms of receiving an at-large bid.  They've now lost 4 of their last 5 games and early season wins over Wake Forest and Maryland just won't hold up anymore.  They'll have to win the conference tournament to avoid the NIT now.  

Key Games 

Xavier at Dayton - The Flyers are treading on some dangerous territory and could really use a win vs the Atlantic 10 leaders.  At 4-3, Dayton is currently tied for 6th in the conference with also-ran St. Louis.  Xavier has owned this series of late especially at home where the Flyers have not won in Cincinnati in 28 years.  Dayton will enjoy some home cooking tomorrow in their most important game of the season. 

Temple at Richmond - Richmond will have its work cut out and their lack of size will be of great concern on Saturday when the Owls come to visit.  The Spiders will be counting heavily on a repeat performance by guard David Gonzalvez.  Last year, he had 36 points against Temple which was a career high.  Also, they hope leading scorer Kevin Anderson can break out of a slump in scoring of late.  The Spiders have been nearly flawless winning 10 out of 11 at home.  

Miss St at Florida - Miss St, once thought to be a lock to get in the tourney is now teetering on oblivion  With three straight road losses, the Bulldogs need to right the ship quickly.  Bulldogs point guard Dee Bost has struggled with poor shooting and decision making.  His poor play has overshadowed the filthy performances by forward Jarvis Varnado.  In the loss to Vanderbilt, Varnado certainly wasn't one to blame recording a near triple double with 14 points, 12 boards, and 9 blocks.   On the other side, the Gators look to build on a near upset of Tennessee followed by a 1 point victory over Alabama.  Florida has won 5 of their past 6 games.

Cal at UCLA -  The Pac 10 is a veritable wasteland for at-large bids and UCLA has no shot at one.  However, they are playing much better than in the beginning of the season and will go for a season sweep of Cal on Saturday.  Freshman Tyler Honeycutt's has emerged as a multi talented forward who is starting to do it all for the young Bruins.  He flirted with a triple double in their win over Stanford finishing with 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists.  A win at Pauley Pavilion on Saturday will keep the Bruins atop the Pac 10. Cal will look to avenge the one point loss to the Bruins on a Michael Roll buzzer beater in Berkeley earlier this season.  

Gonzaga at Memphis - Memphis picked up a huge win over Conference USA leader UAB on Wednesday.  Eliot Williams poured had a great game with 25 points but the real key was the career night from Wesley Witherspoon.  He led the Tigers with 29 points a career high for the 6'8 sophomore swingman.   It was especially encouraging since Witherspoon was just 3 for 19 in his previous 2 games.  A win over perennial midmajor power Gonzaga would put them in great position to reach the tourney.  Gonzaga needs to bounce back after a stunning loss to San Francisco last Saturday.  The Bulldogs did recover nicely with a 27 point drubbing of Portland on Thursday night.  Matt Bouldin had 20 points in the contest that wasn't much of a contest.  

Quick Hitters

SDSU at New Mexico - A huge opportunity for the Aztecs if they can do what BYU couldn't - win at the PIT

Seton Hall at Pittsburgh - The Hall are running out of chances and Pitt needs to get back on track after several uneven performances.  

Michigan St at Illinois - The Illini could use this one badly.  Probably won't happen against a Spartan team coming off their worst loss of the season to Wisconsin.  

Tulsa at UTEP - Tulsa kept its slim hopes for an at-large bid alive with a win against Marshall earlier this week.  Winning on the road at UTEP would further help their cause.  

S Florida at N Dame - All of a sudden perennial doormats of the Big East S Florida is on the map after a stunning victory over Georgetown.  N Dame can build on its win over Cincinnati Thursday.

Syracuse at Cincinnati - After a promising start, the Bearcats are simply running out of time and chances.  Knocking off a #1 seed at home would be huge.  

UNC at Maryland - Forget about impressing the committee by beating UNC these days.  It would be a bad loss for the Terps to lose to Roy Williams' chumps at this point.  

Indiana at N'Western - We saw how dangerous Tom Crean's Hoosiers can be this week when they nearly toppled Purdue.  N'Western better watch its back.  

Pepperdine at LMU - Cmon Lions end this streak!

Important games tonight

William and Mary at Old Dominion- The Tribe who locked down opponents defensively and hit from long distance appeared to be on their way to a special season.  With impressive road wins at Wake Forest and Maryland, William and Mary was ready to take charge in the Colonial Athletic conference.  But it's been tough sledding lately for the Tribe losing 3 straight in conference in the middle of January.  Now tied for 5th in the conference, William and Mary will face preseason favorite Old Dominion on the road.  ODU holds an impressive 19 game winning streak on their home floor.  The Monarchs lead the nation in scoring defense.  Offensively, they are led by the versatile Gerald Lee, a 6'8 forward who is both a playmaker and a bruiser inside.  Obviously, this a critical game for both teams in the CAA.  Another loss by William and Mary will further damage their hopes at an NCAA berth. 
Marshall at Tulsa -Tulsa's slow first half against UAB, where they trailed by as many as 16 points was too much to overcome as UAB hung out for a 5 point win.  The race in Conference USA is far from over though as Tulsa will face Marshall, Memphis and UTEP in the coming weeks.  It all starts tonight against the Thundering Herd who have been one of the pleasant surprises of the conference.  Led by shot blocking machine, Hassan Whiteside, Marshall will get a taste of its own medicine as the Golden Hurricane's Jerome Jordan is one of the best shot blockers in the country.  Tulsa will need to hold serve to stay in the NCAA conversation rather than the NIT one. 
UAB at Memphis - The days of Memphis running over Conference USA are over but the Tigers are still alive just one game behind current leader UAB at 5-2.  Thus tonight's game is huge for the face as well as for Memphis's resume which is quite barren.  Memphis needs to rebound from a bad game against 7th place SMU where the Mustang duo of Papa Dia and Derek Williams combined to score 48 points in the upset.  Memphis will get 2 shots at a marquee win when it faces UAB tonight and Gonzaga on Saturday both at home. 
Wichita State at N Iowa - Simply put this is the biggest game of the year for Wichita St.  A sweep of N Iowa would be a huge feather in the cap for their resume.  The Panthers have payback on their minds from the January 19 loss in Wichita 60-51.  Wichita St will need to duplicate its superb defensive efforts that limited the Panthers to 40% from the field.  A win by N Iowa would stretch the conference lead to 3 games over the Shockers as well. 

Observations on the Latest Status Report

We've added a couple new terminologies to our updated status report to better track a team's progress/decline when compared with the previous report:

Mover - A team that has upgraded/improved its position since the previous week.  This represents either a) moving from the bubble to a team that has earned an at-large bid or b) a team who has to win their conference tourney to a bubble team or c) a team that moved up in the standings of its conference from longshot to favorite.  To reiterate, a favorite in the conference tourney means current standing of 1st or 2nd place in that conference.  

Shaker - A team that has been downgraded/declined since the previous week.  This represents either a) dropping from an at-large bid to the bubble or b) from bubble to having to win their conference tourney or c) dropping from contender to longshot.  

We emphasize again that we are not bracketologists and thus teams on the bubble are loosely defined.  Likewise, teams that are considered in the tournament are limited to the top 8 seeds according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology.  

Movers

•  Vanderbilt - with big wins on the road against Alabama, S Carolina and Tennessee, the Commodores have likely earned an at-large bid
•  Xavier - A big win over Rhode Island at home along with a league leading 7-1 Atlantic 10 record puts the Musketeers in the field comfortably. 
  
•  UAB - Despite a loss to UTEP, the win over co-leader Tulsa was huge for the Blazers.
• UNLV - For now the Rebels are in the dance.  A 4 game stretch at home vs BYU/New Mexico followed by a roadie to SDSU and Utah will further define their chances in March
• Cal- Someone has to take advantage of the weak Pac 10 and so far its been the Bears. 

Shakers 

•  Mississippi - Still in good shape but no longer a sure thing
  
•  Mississippi St - Losses on the road to Alabama and Arkansas put them squarely on the bubble
•  U Conn - A great win over Texas but no road wins to speak of.  The drubbing at Louisville was the latest failure for the Huskies who find themselves in 11th place in the Big East
  
•  Buffalo - just one of the pack in the crowded MAC
  
•  Campbell - see E Tenn St
  
•  Fairfield - Still a good season but Siena is the team to beat in the MAAC
  
•  E Tenn St. - Jacksonville and Lipscomb look to ruin the party for both Ren and Stimpy
  
•  Memphis - Those days of dominating conf usa are over
  
•  Prairie View - Ren picking a SWAC team that isn't the favorite makes Stimpy smile
  
•  Wisconsin Green Bay - lost to Valparaiso good luck beating out Butler

Scoresheet 

1-2 Seeds: Ren 5 Stimpy 3

1-4 Seeds: Ren 8 Stimpy 8

1-8 Seeds: Ren 14 Stimpy 18

Bubble Teams: Ren 12 Stimpy 22

Favorites for the conference title: Ren 13 Stimpy 11

Longshots aka wasted picks: Ren 28 Stimpy 13

 

• Ole Miss
• Mississippi St
• U Conn
• Buffalo
• Campbell 
• Denver

Status Report for 2/2/09

Updated status report below, notes to follow...

Bracketbusters

The pairings for this year's Bracketbusters matchups were announced yesterday on the Bracketbuster Selection Show.  Yes Virginia, there is a Bracketbusters Selection Show...

Siena @ Butler

Old Dominion @ Northern Iowa

Wichita State @ Utah State
College of Charleston @ George Mason
Morgan State @ Murray State
New Mexico State @ Pacific
Western Carolina @ Kent State

Akron @ VCU

Nevada @ Missouri State

Louisiana Tech @ Northeastern
William & Mary @ Iona

Quick Observations

• With only 5 teams represented in the marquee games, Ren's teams are largely irrelevant for the event.  Wasting picks on 2 teams from the SWAC, 3 from the Big West, and 3 teams from the Southland Conference will do that to you.  It's not like the dude watches basketball anyway.
• Siena appears to be the big winner in terms of having an opportunity to benefit the most from Bracketbusters.  It won't be easy as the Saints will be facing #23 Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse.  Siena holds the nation's longest winning streak at 13 games.  They scheduled many tough teams during their nonconference slate (including Temple, Georgia Tech, and N Iowa) but were unsuccessful in securing a signature win.  If they can beat Butler in a battle of 2 of the more successful midmajors in the last 5 years, they'll have that win.  Siena is currently undefeated at 12-0 in the MAAC conference.
• Likewise, Old Dominion will have an opportunity for a big road win when it travels to face #15 N Iowa.  According to Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology, ODU is one of the last 4 teams in the tournament so a win over N Iowa will help immensely.  Points will be hard to come by as both teams are among the best defensive teams in the country.  
• Wichita St (RPI #48) vs Utah St (RPI #54): both teams are right on the bubble with the Shockers being one of the first 4 teams out according to Lunardi.  Stew Morrill's Aggies are playing efficient basketball and have come a long way since getting blown out by Louisiana Tech in January.  Utah St is 9-3 in their past 12 games. It is one of two Ren vs Stimpy bracketbuster battles on the schedule and by far the most significant one.  
• Both Morgan St and Murray St are undefeated in their respective conferences.  Thus there are bragging rights at stake for the MEAC and OVC.