2/09/10 Status Report Notes

Movers

1. Texas A & M -  The Aggies had a very successful week winning on the road against Missouri and holding serve against #20 ranked Baylor.  At this point, they are clearly in the tournament as a #7 seed according to ESPN's Joey Brackets.  
2. Maryland - Testudo is dancing in his shell right now as the Terps find themselves all alone in 2nd place in the ACC.  Maryland edged Florida State on the road and then destroyed the Tar reels at home.  While UNC may not even qualify for the NIT, it's still a landmark win for Maryland to dominate Roy Williams' squad so thoroughly.  Senior Greivis Vasquez is playing some of his best basketball of the season and finished with 26 points and 11 assists in the win over UNC. 
3. Cornell - The Big Red aren't sneaking up on anyone this year and Lunardi already has Cornell slated as an 8th seed.  Their train just keeps rolling with double digit victories over Yale and Brown.  As long as they don't slip up, Cornell is in great shape to return to the Big Dance and make some noise.
4. Memphis - A big win at home over conference leader UAB helps get Memphis on the bubble.  But a close loss to Gonzaga assures that the Tigers will have to sweat it out on Selection Sunday if they lose in the Conference USA tourney.  
5. Belmont and Campbell - We're headed for an Atlantic Sun showdown as these two stand 1/2 in the conference with Ren's E Tenn St a factor as well.

Shakers

1. Clemson - The Tigers have lost 4 of their last 5 games and are squarely on the bubble now after the slide.  While they appear to be safe for now, Clemson needs to right this ship quickly.  A three game homestand beginning with Florida State on Wednesday is critical.  
2. UAB -  Just a slight drop for UAB but the Blazers still have room for error. and appear to be on the right side of the bubble  The loss to a desperate Memphis team on the road is not considered a bad loss.  A rematch at home with Marshall will be a dangerous game but one that UAB should win.  
3. Cal - The weakness of the Pac 10 means that even though the Bears won at Pauley Pavilion on Saturday, Cal is not guaranteed a spot in the tourney yet.  Similar to the teams above, as long as they keep winning, Cal will have nothing to worry about though.  The problem is that any slip up in the Pac 10 will be looked at unfavorably since the Pac 10 is so weak.  
4. Harvard - As mentioned in an earlier post, the Crimson are NIT bound unless they can somehow catch Cornell.  They'll need help for that to happen after losing to Princeton on Friday. 
5. UNC - An irrelevant team that is getting worse by the day.  Even a win over Duke might not resuscitate this corpse.
6. William and Mary, Alabama, Texas Southern - The first two are no longer on the bubble and Texas Southern fell to Prairie View Saturday and is now in 3rd place in the SWAC race.  

Scorecard: 

1-2 Seeds: Ren 5 Stimpy 3

1-4 Seeds: Ren 7 Stimpy 9

1-8 Seeds:  Ren 12 Stimpy 20

Bubble Teams: Ren 14 Stimpy 17

Favorites for the Conf title: Ren 13 Stimpy 12

Longshots aka wasted picks: Ren 26 Stimpy 17

Worst record candidates:

Penn St 8-15

UC Riverside 9-14

UC Irvine 10-14

Hofstra 12-13

Long Beach St 11-12

Michigan 11-12

UCLA 11-12

 

 

Status Report 2/09/10

Updated status report below, notes to follow...

Weekend Watch

the only thing worse than UNC is my artwork

 

In Memoriam

North Carolina - Stick a fork in these guys after their latest loss to the Hokies.  At pick #6, congrats Stimpy you just made the worst pick of all time. 
Harvard - After getting thrashed in last week's not so game of the week vs Cornell, the Crimson were unable to recover, losing to Princeton on Friday.  They will now have to beat Cornell and hope that Big Red slips twice more to have a shot at the NCAAs. 
William and Mary - After getting throttled by Old Dominion on Wednesday, the Tribe are all but done in terms of receiving an at-large bid.  They've now lost 4 of their last 5 games and early season wins over Wake Forest and Maryland just won't hold up anymore.  They'll have to win the conference tournament to avoid the NIT now.  

Key Games 

Xavier at Dayton - The Flyers are treading on some dangerous territory and could really use a win vs the Atlantic 10 leaders.  At 4-3, Dayton is currently tied for 6th in the conference with also-ran St. Louis.  Xavier has owned this series of late especially at home where the Flyers have not won in Cincinnati in 28 years.  Dayton will enjoy some home cooking tomorrow in their most important game of the season. 

Temple at Richmond - Richmond will have its work cut out and their lack of size will be of great concern on Saturday when the Owls come to visit.  The Spiders will be counting heavily on a repeat performance by guard David Gonzalvez.  Last year, he had 36 points against Temple which was a career high.  Also, they hope leading scorer Kevin Anderson can break out of a slump in scoring of late.  The Spiders have been nearly flawless winning 10 out of 11 at home.  

Miss St at Florida - Miss St, once thought to be a lock to get in the tourney is now teetering on oblivion  With three straight road losses, the Bulldogs need to right the ship quickly.  Bulldogs point guard Dee Bost has struggled with poor shooting and decision making.  His poor play has overshadowed the filthy performances by forward Jarvis Varnado.  In the loss to Vanderbilt, Varnado certainly wasn't one to blame recording a near triple double with 14 points, 12 boards, and 9 blocks.   On the other side, the Gators look to build on a near upset of Tennessee followed by a 1 point victory over Alabama.  Florida has won 5 of their past 6 games.

Cal at UCLA -  The Pac 10 is a veritable wasteland for at-large bids and UCLA has no shot at one.  However, they are playing much better than in the beginning of the season and will go for a season sweep of Cal on Saturday.  Freshman Tyler Honeycutt's has emerged as a multi talented forward who is starting to do it all for the young Bruins.  He flirted with a triple double in their win over Stanford finishing with 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists.  A win at Pauley Pavilion on Saturday will keep the Bruins atop the Pac 10. Cal will look to avenge the one point loss to the Bruins on a Michael Roll buzzer beater in Berkeley earlier this season.  

Gonzaga at Memphis - Memphis picked up a huge win over Conference USA leader UAB on Wednesday.  Eliot Williams poured had a great game with 25 points but the real key was the career night from Wesley Witherspoon.  He led the Tigers with 29 points a career high for the 6'8 sophomore swingman.   It was especially encouraging since Witherspoon was just 3 for 19 in his previous 2 games.  A win over perennial midmajor power Gonzaga would put them in great position to reach the tourney.  Gonzaga needs to bounce back after a stunning loss to San Francisco last Saturday.  The Bulldogs did recover nicely with a 27 point drubbing of Portland on Thursday night.  Matt Bouldin had 20 points in the contest that wasn't much of a contest.  

Quick Hitters

SDSU at New Mexico - A huge opportunity for the Aztecs if they can do what BYU couldn't - win at the PIT

Seton Hall at Pittsburgh - The Hall are running out of chances and Pitt needs to get back on track after several uneven performances.  

Michigan St at Illinois - The Illini could use this one badly.  Probably won't happen against a Spartan team coming off their worst loss of the season to Wisconsin.  

Tulsa at UTEP - Tulsa kept its slim hopes for an at-large bid alive with a win against Marshall earlier this week.  Winning on the road at UTEP would further help their cause.  

S Florida at N Dame - All of a sudden perennial doormats of the Big East S Florida is on the map after a stunning victory over Georgetown.  N Dame can build on its win over Cincinnati Thursday.

Syracuse at Cincinnati - After a promising start, the Bearcats are simply running out of time and chances.  Knocking off a #1 seed at home would be huge.  

UNC at Maryland - Forget about impressing the committee by beating UNC these days.  It would be a bad loss for the Terps to lose to Roy Williams' chumps at this point.  

Indiana at N'Western - We saw how dangerous Tom Crean's Hoosiers can be this week when they nearly toppled Purdue.  N'Western better watch its back.  

Pepperdine at LMU - Cmon Lions end this streak!

Important games tonight

William and Mary at Old Dominion- The Tribe who locked down opponents defensively and hit from long distance appeared to be on their way to a special season.  With impressive road wins at Wake Forest and Maryland, William and Mary was ready to take charge in the Colonial Athletic conference.  But it's been tough sledding lately for the Tribe losing 3 straight in conference in the middle of January.  Now tied for 5th in the conference, William and Mary will face preseason favorite Old Dominion on the road.  ODU holds an impressive 19 game winning streak on their home floor.  The Monarchs lead the nation in scoring defense.  Offensively, they are led by the versatile Gerald Lee, a 6'8 forward who is both a playmaker and a bruiser inside.  Obviously, this a critical game for both teams in the CAA.  Another loss by William and Mary will further damage their hopes at an NCAA berth. 
Marshall at Tulsa -Tulsa's slow first half against UAB, where they trailed by as many as 16 points was too much to overcome as UAB hung out for a 5 point win.  The race in Conference USA is far from over though as Tulsa will face Marshall, Memphis and UTEP in the coming weeks.  It all starts tonight against the Thundering Herd who have been one of the pleasant surprises of the conference.  Led by shot blocking machine, Hassan Whiteside, Marshall will get a taste of its own medicine as the Golden Hurricane's Jerome Jordan is one of the best shot blockers in the country.  Tulsa will need to hold serve to stay in the NCAA conversation rather than the NIT one. 
UAB at Memphis - The days of Memphis running over Conference USA are over but the Tigers are still alive just one game behind current leader UAB at 5-2.  Thus tonight's game is huge for the face as well as for Memphis's resume which is quite barren.  Memphis needs to rebound from a bad game against 7th place SMU where the Mustang duo of Papa Dia and Derek Williams combined to score 48 points in the upset.  Memphis will get 2 shots at a marquee win when it faces UAB tonight and Gonzaga on Saturday both at home. 
Wichita State at N Iowa - Simply put this is the biggest game of the year for Wichita St.  A sweep of N Iowa would be a huge feather in the cap for their resume.  The Panthers have payback on their minds from the January 19 loss in Wichita 60-51.  Wichita St will need to duplicate its superb defensive efforts that limited the Panthers to 40% from the field.  A win by N Iowa would stretch the conference lead to 3 games over the Shockers as well. 

Observations on the Latest Status Report

We've added a couple new terminologies to our updated status report to better track a team's progress/decline when compared with the previous report:

Mover - A team that has upgraded/improved its position since the previous week.  This represents either a) moving from the bubble to a team that has earned an at-large bid or b) a team who has to win their conference tourney to a bubble team or c) a team that moved up in the standings of its conference from longshot to favorite.  To reiterate, a favorite in the conference tourney means current standing of 1st or 2nd place in that conference.  

Shaker - A team that has been downgraded/declined since the previous week.  This represents either a) dropping from an at-large bid to the bubble or b) from bubble to having to win their conference tourney or c) dropping from contender to longshot.  

We emphasize again that we are not bracketologists and thus teams on the bubble are loosely defined.  Likewise, teams that are considered in the tournament are limited to the top 8 seeds according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology.  

Movers

•  Vanderbilt - with big wins on the road against Alabama, S Carolina and Tennessee, the Commodores have likely earned an at-large bid
•  Xavier - A big win over Rhode Island at home along with a league leading 7-1 Atlantic 10 record puts the Musketeers in the field comfortably. 
  
•  UAB - Despite a loss to UTEP, the win over co-leader Tulsa was huge for the Blazers.
• UNLV - For now the Rebels are in the dance.  A 4 game stretch at home vs BYU/New Mexico followed by a roadie to SDSU and Utah will further define their chances in March
• Cal- Someone has to take advantage of the weak Pac 10 and so far its been the Bears. 

Shakers 

•  Mississippi - Still in good shape but no longer a sure thing
  
•  Mississippi St - Losses on the road to Alabama and Arkansas put them squarely on the bubble
•  U Conn - A great win over Texas but no road wins to speak of.  The drubbing at Louisville was the latest failure for the Huskies who find themselves in 11th place in the Big East
  
•  Buffalo - just one of the pack in the crowded MAC
  
•  Campbell - see E Tenn St
  
•  Fairfield - Still a good season but Siena is the team to beat in the MAAC
  
•  E Tenn St. - Jacksonville and Lipscomb look to ruin the party for both Ren and Stimpy
  
•  Memphis - Those days of dominating conf usa are over
  
•  Prairie View - Ren picking a SWAC team that isn't the favorite makes Stimpy smile
  
•  Wisconsin Green Bay - lost to Valparaiso good luck beating out Butler

Scoresheet 

1-2 Seeds: Ren 5 Stimpy 3

1-4 Seeds: Ren 8 Stimpy 8

1-8 Seeds: Ren 14 Stimpy 18

Bubble Teams: Ren 12 Stimpy 22

Favorites for the conference title: Ren 13 Stimpy 11

Longshots aka wasted picks: Ren 28 Stimpy 13

 

• Ole Miss
• Mississippi St
• U Conn
• Buffalo
• Campbell 
• Denver

Status Report for 2/2/09

Updated status report below, notes to follow...

Bracketbusters

The pairings for this year's Bracketbusters matchups were announced yesterday on the Bracketbuster Selection Show.  Yes Virginia, there is a Bracketbusters Selection Show...

Siena @ Butler

Old Dominion @ Northern Iowa

Wichita State @ Utah State
College of Charleston @ George Mason
Morgan State @ Murray State
New Mexico State @ Pacific
Western Carolina @ Kent State

Akron @ VCU

Nevada @ Missouri State

Louisiana Tech @ Northeastern
William & Mary @ Iona

Quick Observations

• With only 5 teams represented in the marquee games, Ren's teams are largely irrelevant for the event.  Wasting picks on 2 teams from the SWAC, 3 from the Big West, and 3 teams from the Southland Conference will do that to you.  It's not like the dude watches basketball anyway.
• Siena appears to be the big winner in terms of having an opportunity to benefit the most from Bracketbusters.  It won't be easy as the Saints will be facing #23 Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse.  Siena holds the nation's longest winning streak at 13 games.  They scheduled many tough teams during their nonconference slate (including Temple, Georgia Tech, and N Iowa) but were unsuccessful in securing a signature win.  If they can beat Butler in a battle of 2 of the more successful midmajors in the last 5 years, they'll have that win.  Siena is currently undefeated at 12-0 in the MAAC conference.
• Likewise, Old Dominion will have an opportunity for a big road win when it travels to face #15 N Iowa.  According to Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology, ODU is one of the last 4 teams in the tournament so a win over N Iowa will help immensely.  Points will be hard to come by as both teams are among the best defensive teams in the country.  
• Wichita St (RPI #48) vs Utah St (RPI #54): both teams are right on the bubble with the Shockers being one of the first 4 teams out according to Lunardi.  Stew Morrill's Aggies are playing efficient basketball and have come a long way since getting blown out by Louisiana Tech in January.  Utah St is 9-3 in their past 12 games. It is one of two Ren vs Stimpy bracketbuster battles on the schedule and by far the most significant one.  
• Both Morgan St and Murray St are undefeated in their respective conferences.  Thus there are bragging rights at stake for the MEAC and OVC.